Policymaking at the Edge of Chaos: Musings on Political Ideology Through the Lens of Complexity
Dr. Christopher Ford • January 20, 2011
A monograph struggling with what lessons one might learn from Complexity Science to help understand politics and ideology. It is also available here, from Hudson Institute.
Paper Presented to the Conference on
“Is Complexity the New Framework for the Study of Global Life?”
Sydney, Australia
(January 19-20, 2011)
Synopsis:
Though there seems little reason why it should not yield insights when applied to the complex adaptive systems of human society, the field of Complexity Theory presents special problems for anyone looking to it for lessons in the field of public policymaking. In particular, complex systems’ nonlinearity and sensitivity to initial conditions seems to have subversive implications for policymaking, inasmuch as the unpredictability that they imply undercuts the very possibility of purposive policymaking. Complexity presents a “policymaker’s paradox,” for even as is suggests that small policy inputs can sometimes have an enormous impact upon systemic outcomes, it also seems to teach that we cannot predict what results our policy choices are likely to have over time. When outcomes are radically resistant to prediction, they are also necessarily resistant to the sort of deliberate control that policymaking traditionally assumes it possible to assert.
After outlining this dilemma, this paper explores one possible, albeit only partial, response: an approach to policymaking that focuses with special emphasis upon shaping the conceptual frameworks that guide and channel human behavior within complex adaptive social systems. Experts continue to debate the degree to which Complexity insights from the hard sciences can translate into the social sciences. A focus upon the ideational constraints upon, and drivers for, unit-level operational behavior in a social system seems warranted, however, because humans’ susceptibility to tying behavior to such frameworks distinguishes them from unit-level elements of the complex systems investigated in other fields (e.g., chemistry, physics, computing, mathematics, or evolutionary biology). Accordingly, this paper suggests the possibility that policy interventions in the realm of ideas may have more potential to create transformative change than many other types of intervention. Such interventions are perhaps also able to produce change that is more “predictable” than Complexity would otherwise tend to suggest, inasmuch as conceptual “memetics” can create characteristic behavioral patterns over time as ideas propagate themselves in conceptual “families” and thus continue to shape actors’ choices in recognizable ways.
The paper explores this notion through the use of a case study: the evolution of the “separate development” ideology of racial apartheid in South Africa from the 1950s to the beginning of the 1990s. Outlining the origins of this system in a deliberate effort of ideological entrepreneurship by ideologists within that country’s then-ruling National Party, the paper then follows the evolution of separate development theory as it struggled with domestic and international contestation, internal contradictions and tensions, and competition from other ideological frameworks until its effective dissolution with the coming of universal franchise within a system of constitutional rights in the early 1990s. This paper uses examples from the history of South African separate development theory to illustrate Complexity Theory’s utility as a lens through which to examine political ideology, and to suggest – in light of the peculiar power ideas seem to have to shape behavior, for good or ill – the potential value of a more self-consciously ideational approach to public policy.
Dr. Ford's article on "Thinking About Strategy in an Artificial Superintelligence Arms Race" -- co-authored with Dr. Craig Wiener -- was published in Defense & Strategic Studies Online (DASSO), vol. 1, no. 4 (Summer 2025). You can find the whole issue on the DASSO website here , or use the button below to download a PDF of the Ford/Wiener article. (Also, the home page for DASSO can be found here .)
Below are the remarks Dr. Ford delivered to a webinar sponsored by the National Institute for Deterrence Studies on August 29, 2025.
Over much of last year, Dr. Ford participated in the Senior Study Group (SSG) on Strategic Stability at the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP). Ably chaired by Brad Roberts of the Center for Global Security Research at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and Rebeccah Heinrichs of Hudson Institute, the SSG completed its report in February 2025, only to immediately run into publication problems as a result of the government's effort to shut down the USIP. The litigation associated with that effort remains ongoing, but the SSG is pleased to be able now to publish its report. The report is not available on the USIP website, but you can use the button below to download a PDF.
Below is the prepared text upon which Dr. Ford drew in his remarks to and discussions with a nuclear deterrence study group in London on July 28, 2025.
Below is the text upon which Dr. Ford based his remarks on July 22, 2025, to a conference sponsored by the Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.
Below is the prepared text upon which Dr. Ford based his oral remarks at a conference sponsored by the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) at Cambridge University on June 17, 2025.
Below is the text upon which Dr. Ford drew in delivering his remarks at a conference on "Transatlantic Turbulence: What Next for European Defence?" held at the University of Birmingham on June 13, 2025.
Below are the remarks Dr. Ford delivered (virtually) to a conference in Beijing on June 12, 2025, sponsored by the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network (APLN) and the Grandview Institution .
The National Institute for Public Policy published Dr. Ford's article "Thinking About Russian Nuclear Weapons Thinking" in volume 5, number 2, of the Journal of Policy & Strategy (2025). You can find the whole issue on the NIPP website here , or use the button below to download a PDF of the article.
In this article in Volume 1, Issue 3 of the Missouri State Univeristy's online journal Defense & Strategic Studies Online (pp. 1-89), Dr. Christopher Ford, John Schurtz, and Erik Quam offer a detailed analytical account of how cybernetic theories of social control developed by the scientist Qian Xuesen and his disciples were adopted by the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party and are today critical to understanding the Party’s domestic governance and foreign relations. You can see the whole issue on DASSO's website here , read the Ford/Schurtz/Quam article here , or use the button below to access a PDF of the article.