Systems and Strategy: Causal Maps, Complexity, and Strategic Competition

Dr. Christopher Ford • November 17, 2022

MITRE's Center for Strategic Competition (CSC) published its seventh Occasional Paper on November 14, 2022.  Written by Dr. Ford, it describes some of the ways in which the CSC has been working to develop approaches to understanding decision making through the prism of Complexity Science, and offers an illustrative hypothetical example of how such methods can enrich policymaking.  The paper can be found here, or can be downloaded by using the button below.

From the Executive Summary:


In developing and implementing an effective ‘whole of nation’ (WON) response to the WON challenges we face in the modern world, such as those presented by China’s full- spectrum competitive strategy, it is essential to provide U.S. and other Western leaders with the holistic situational awareness, ‘systems’-informed analysis, and cross-jurisdictional policy coordination that a genuinely ‘comprehensive’ national strategy—and strategic ‘campaigning’—requires. China’s effort to create what might be called a ‘leverage web of mutually-reinforcing instruments of power and influence confronts U.S. leaders with a genuinely systemic problem of long-term competitive strategy. Yet the U.S. Government is presently not well organized to meet this challenge ....


We need much more sophisticated ways to assess and describe our strategic environment, to understand key patterns and dynamics therein that affect U.S. interests—including the systemic patterns that can be generated by and within complex systems—to evaluate possible courses of action (COAs) in response to developments, to identify ways to wield coordinated levers of national power in response to strategic challenges, to monitor the impact of policy interventions upon that environment, and to repeat such analysis and COA evaluation on a timely and iterated basis so as to ensure that U.S. responses fit the situation. ...


The MITRE Corporations Center for Strategic Competition has been working to develop and refine methodologies to help: (1) find ways to aggregate the input of multiple Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) in a scalable way through the construction and aggregation of causal maps; and (2) understand such causal maps in ways that identify characteristic patterns therein in order to focus policy deliberations upon the development of effective interventions designed to break, impede, or nudge such systemic dynamics
in more salutary directions. This approach allows a considerable degree of complexity to be intelligibly captured, while yet permitting one to
‘unpack’ advice given on the basis of such maps in detail, allowing leaders to assess its plausibility, identify its underlying assumptions, spot the areas of relative consensus or contestation encoded therein, test counterfactuals against received wisdoms, and explore the merits and demerits of alternative policy interventions in a rigorous and systematic way. Using such tools, it is also possible to discern and visualize the most significant sub-system interrelationships in a complex system such as that of People’s Republic of China (PRC) global strategy. Identifying characteristic configurations and the dynamics that may lie behind systemic behavior can help open up important new insights into strategy and possibilities for policy interventions. ....”


DOWNLOAD Systems and Strategy
By Dr. Christopher Ford May 28, 2026
Below is the prepared text upon which Dr. Ford based his comments to a conference on May 28, 2026, sponsored by the Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.
By Dr. Christopher Ford April 30, 2026
Below are the prepared remarks on which Dr. Ford based his comments at a meeting in Lausanne, Switzerland, on April 18, 2026, discussing U.S.-Russian relations after the expiration of the New START agreement.
By Dr. Christopher Ford April 25, 2026
Below are the remarks Dr. Ford delivered on a panel at the NATO Nuclear Policy Symposium in Istanbul , Türkiye, on April 21, 2026.
By Dr. Christopher Ford April 23, 2026
Dr. Ford's article arguing for a "neo-legitimist" approach to international law and law-making was published in Missouri State University's journal Defense & Strategic Studies Online (DASSO) in April 2026. You can find DASSO's webpage here , and an online copy of Dr. Ford's article here -- or use the button below to download a PDF.
By Dr. Christopher Ford April 13, 2026
Below is the essay of Dr. Ford's that INHR published on April 10, 2026. The essay can be found on the INHR website here , or read the text below.
By Dr. Christopher Ford April 2, 2026
Below is the essay of Dr. Ford's that INHR published on March 27, 2026. The essay can be found on the INHR website here , or read the text below.
By Dr. Christopher Ford March 26, 2026
Below is the essay of Dr. Ford's that INHR published on March 12, 2026. The essay can be found on the INHR website here, or read the text below.
By Dr. Christopher Ford March 3, 2026
The March-April 2026 edition of the Foreign Service Journal published Dr. Ford's article entitled "Negotiating Nuclear Security: A View from the First Trump Administration." You can find the article online by clicking here .
By Dr. Christopher Ford February 11, 2026
Dr. Ford's article entitled " Marxing America Great Again: Marxist Discourse in Right-Wing Populism and the Future of Geopolitics " was published in Defense & Strategic Studies Online (DASSO), vol. 2, no. 2 (Winter 2026). You can find the whole issue on the DASSO website here , or use the button below to download a PDF of Dr. Ford's piece. (Also, the home page for DASSO can be found here .)
By Dr. Christopher Ford February 6, 2026
Below is an lightly edited version of the prepared text upon which Dr. Ford based his remarks on February 4, 2026, at the conference on "Regional Security and Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East" sponsored by the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR) in Prague, Czech Republic.